May 2009
A Monthly Newsletter Source of Financial Sources
Don’t miss this month’s timely story ideas, direct dial phone numbers, and E-mail addresses of these accessible experts!
PERSONAL FINANCE
• Financial Planning for the Client Under Duress
There are always options. You may not like them but they exist.
• Review Annuities with an Eye to Eligibility for a 1035 Exchange into a Plan with Better Investment Options and Lower Fees.
Possible loss of part of death benefit must be carefully scrutinized.
Discussing your assets with your children, however, may yield surprising results.
• There is No Safety Net for Retirement – But There is for College Costs.
When a child asks a parent for college money for a grandchild, look carefully at whether such a gift might compromise a long-term retirement.
• Health Care Costs Vary Greatly Based on Health Issues. Averages don't work for everyone.
An individual’s life expectancy can vary by 20 years and annual health care costs can vary by 50% based on one’s health profile.
• Good Advice Has Not Changed. To Be a Bear Market Winner, Stay in the Market.
Sitting on the sidelines may feel more comfortable, but portfolios cannot grow if they are not invested.
INVESTMENTS
• Miller Convertible Fund Tops Morningstar Rankings; Wins Coveted Lipper Award
REAL ESTATE
• Is the “Making Home Affordable Program” a Strikeout or a Home Run?
In the loan modification world, the infrastructure and incentive system simply does not yet exist, to the detriment of both the homeowners and the banks.
• It's Not Your Father's Real Estate Recession
Investors and developers find that some market sub-sectors are working today, but some are not. Which you pick may determine how you do.
PRACTICE MANAGEMENT
• Maximize Mileage from Your E-mail Subject Line
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PERSONAL FINANCE
Financial Planning for the Client Under Duress
There are always options. You may not like them but they exist.
Nearly all Americans have changed how they feel about their financial security. Most pre-retirees or just retired, singles and couples alike, are seeing dramatically different numbers when they look at their assets. As a result, favorite movie packages have been cut from the cable service and extra phone lines have been cancelled. Cleaning ladies have been fired and charitable giving has been curtailed. Guests get chicken, not beef, and contributions to dinner are invited. And that's just the small stuff. Cutbacks are being made everywhere.
Budget cutbacks make it nearly impossible for some people to continue to pay premiums on products that were essential to their financial plan. Before canceling policies crucial to financial plans, find a financial advisor who can look at all your numbers and give you a fresh look at your situation. There are always options. You may really dislike them, but you do have choices.
- Mary's self-employed business imploded this winter. She had been earning in the low six figures for many years and now she will be lucky to exceed $50,000 for the year. Her mortgage is $60,000 annually and her house is underwater. She is paying her mortgage with her retirement savings. She has contacted her bank about a mortgage remediation. It's too soon to tell, given how slowly the national banks have been about responding to remediation packages that consumers have been requested to send in. But Mary figures, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
- Phil and Betsey's daughter-in-law is imploring them not to cancel their long term care (LTC) insurance, although the premiums are increasing and will be more than $3200 a year shortly. They have an excellent policy with unlimited benefits and a cost of living rider that increases the daily benefit every year. The LTC company has been encouraging them to reduce their premiums by giving up their unlimited benefits, but the couple have built a handicapped accessible home in the hopes of living there for a very long time. Phil and Betsey's advisor has suggested talking to their two sons and asking for specific help on these premiums, so that ultimately their sons and their wives (statistically likely to be the caregivers) are not required to provide elder care services and are not slammed by at home care costs, assisted living or nursing home fees.
- John and Joan had a substantial amount of term life insurance. Their original thought was to give their children a chance to pay down the mortgage on their five-year-old retirement home in a resort area and own it outright at the time of their deaths. The premiums are no longer in the budget, and in fact, their legacy to their daughters will be dramatically changed because of this economic downturn that has come five years into their retirement and substantially diminished their investment portfolio by 31 percent. All bets are off on the legacy. Their advisor is looking into whether any viatical settlement company would be interested in buying their term life insurance policies. It's a long shot, but worth the inquiry.
- Ellen inherited the family vacation property at the seashore. She is finding the taxes and upkeep difficult because of her reduced financial circumstances and this summer does not look like a great rental season. She didn't keep great records and assumed that the summer rental income was paying the taxes, insurance, and for a variety of other costs such as exterior painting, a new septic motor, and a replacement hot water heater. She has owned the cottage for nearly 20 years, and is reluctant to sell the place because of strong emotional ties, although she does not use it herself, and rents it every summer. Her financial advisor ran a spreadsheet that showed the real costs of keeping the place. Selling is being considered, as are several strategies for deferring capital gains on the sales proceeds through a 1031 721 Exchange (UPREIT) that allows the proceeds from a residential rental property sale to be exchanged for shares in one property that a REIT is likely to purchase in three to four years. The product comes with guarantees and also pays Ellen a competitive rate of return.
Financial distress is never easy and for many investors can be quite frightening. The best way through is information gathering on all options available to you whether you like them or not. Sometimes what seems like bitter medicine is really a path to healing your financial future.
Rich Arzaga is Founder and President, Cornerstone Wealth Management, San Ramon, California, a life planning company specializing in providing options and solutions for residential and commercial real estate investors. He is also an instructor in the nationally-recognized financial planning certification program at U.C. Berkeley, and teaches the highly-acclaimed Real Estate Investments course at U.C. Santa Cruz and U.C. Berkeley. Rich can be reached at rich@consultrich.com or toll free (888) 290-9900.
Securities and Investment advice through Associated Securities Corp. (ASC), Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor. Additional Advisory and Investment Services offered through Cornerstone Wealth Management Inc., a registered investment advisor not affiliated with ASC. CA Insurance License No. 0D92796
Review Annuities with an Eye to Eligibility for a 1035 Exchange into a Plan with Better Investment Options and Lower Fees.
Possible loss of part of death benefit must be carefully scrutinized.
An annual review of variable annuities is important for investors. Many annuities may be eligible for a 1035 exchange to an annuity with better investment options and lower fees. However, because of the market collapse in the last year, these same annuities are currently valued at less than the death benefit.
If a client exchanges out of their existing annuity, they are giving up that death benefit and will have to accept (for at least the foreseeable future) a lower death benefit from the new variable annuity. This does not mean that a 1035 exchange is never suitable for a client, but the investor must be able to justify giving up the difference in death benefits.
The annuity owner may not be using the current annuity for its death benefit. The investor may have plenty of life insurance for their circumstances. In such a case, accepting a lower death benefit through a 1035 exchange would not be a bad transaction.
However, it may not be suitable for an investor to surrender an annuity altogether if the annuity is part of their insurance planning and when the investor might have difficulty obtaining new normal term or whole life insurance.
When reviewing variable annuities check with a financial advisor because such a review cannot focus on one issue (account value or expenses) to the detriment of others. Whether surrendering a variable annuity or looking at a 1035 exchange, the advisor must look at the client's entire situation when trying to decide whether a surrender or exchange is suitable.
Donald L. McCoy, J.D., CMFC -- Planners Financial Services, Inc., 952-835-9000. Minneapolis, Minnesota. Registered investment adviser and subsidiary company Montgomery Investment Management, specialize in the management of no-load mutual fund portfolios for individuals and retirement plans designed to protect capital by reducing risk. - pfshim@usinternet.com.
There is No Safety Net for Retirement – But There is for College Costs.
When a child asks a parent for college money for a grandchild, look carefully at whether such a gift might compromise a long-term retirement.
inancially stressed parents of college bound students and their grandparents are feeling an unexpected pinch. College costs are difficult for working parents to save for, particularly with unemployment and wage freezes, but loans are always possible. Many grandparents have seen their retirement portfolios change dramatically and are not in the same position they once might have been in regarding help with college costs. If they do decide to help, they take the chance of outlasting their assets – assets they cannot replace or expect to grow significantly.
Emma, age 73, was married for 45 years to Joshua Rubin, a successful engineer. She has three children. After Joshua died recently, one of the children began pressuring Emma to make good on a “promise” to put her two daughters through college. Emma does not remember such a concrete promise, but is having great difficulty telling her daughter that she does not have the assets any longer to make good on this promise.
The problem, however, according to Emma’s financial advisor, is that the recent downturn makes it unlikely that Emma (who can expect significant longevity) can stretch her assets far enough to cover her costs until age 100 as it is, even without such a gift to a child for a grandchild’s college cost. Suffering under the common ailment of loving parents, Emma wants to be fair to all of her children. Each one has received nearly $100,000 in past years.
The advisor has put this plan of action into place for Emma to help in her decision making.
- Creating a financial plan based on the assets that Emma has today and can depend on for the rest of her life. The advisor has already told Emma that she will be hard pressed to see her assets sustain her for the duration.
- Encourage Emma to see if she can make significant lifestyle changes that would create enough savings to make additional gifts to her children.
- Help Emma consider the impact on the other siblings if she cannot also pay for their children’s college education.
- Offer to meet with Emma and her daughter to go over the reality of Emma’s financial situation.
Emma was pleased to have her advisor to help explain to her children that the market downturn’s impact on her savings means she can’t be as generous as she once would have liked. And she feels that showing her children that she is making meaningful lifestyle sacrifices -- canceling symphony subscriptions, and reducing travel -- so that she can provide limited support for her grandchildren’s college has helped them to accept her new reality.
It is never easy for a widow to know that she is doing the right thing for her children after the death of a spouse. In Emma’s case, it is likely that Joshua would know that their children are still earning salaries and can pay back college loans, while Emma cannot take more investment risk to seek greater return on her assets. What she has must be carefully managed to see her through her senior years. Family emotions aside, Emma’s greatest obligation is to herself first, and then her children. Joshua would approve.
Susan Moore, CFP®, Moore Financial Advisors, Ltd., Watertown, MA, (www.mooreadvisors.com) provides fee-only financial planning and investment management services for individuals and families. She can be reached at moore@mooreadvisors.com or 617-393-9999.
Health Care Costs Vary Greatly Based on Health. Averages don't work for everyone.
An individual’s life expectancy can vary by 20 years and annual health care costs can vary by 50% based on one’s health profile.
Fidelity recently announced their annual findings of health care costs in retirement.
http://personal.fidelity.com/myfidelity/InsideFidelity/index_NewsCenter.shtml
A 65-year-old couple retiring in 2009 will need approximately $240,0001 to cover medical expenses in retirement even with Medicare insurance coverage, according to Fidelity Investments' latest health care cost estimate.
1Fidelity Consulting Services 2009
The Fidelity study assumes no employer-provided retiree health care coverage and life expectancies of 17 years for a male and 20 years for a female. The health care cost data released by Fidelity is potentially much lower than what a couple will actually need. An individual’s health care costs are affected by a number of factors including health care coverage, life expectancy, and health status. Take a look at how much the $240,000 can increase based on a couple of changes:
#1) The couple lives to their average life expectancy: Add an additional $134,000 In this scenario, the male lives to 86 (instead of 82 in the Fidelity example) and the female lives to 90 (instead of 85 in the Fidelity example) They will need approximately $374,000 to cover medical expenses in retirement.
#2) The male has Type 2 Diabetes Add an additional $25,000 Please note that Type 2 Diabetes generally decreases life expectancy but for the sake of this example, the male’s life expectancy remains at 82 like the Fidelity example.
An individual’s life expectancy can vary by 20 years and annual health care costs can vary by 50% based on one’s health profile. Understanding your personal situation and expected health care costs in retirement is a critical step to planning for your future financial needs.
HealthView data is based on proprietary medical underwriting guidelines and an in-depth analysis of U.S. nationwide average healthcare costs. Calculations assume an individual has Medicare part A, B, D and Medicare Supplement plan. Joanna Flynn Gates, HealthView, can be reached at 617-875-4063. HealthView provides financial institutions, their advisors and clients with something new and essential – personalized healthcare cost information leading to more accurate and effective investment strategies.
Good Advice Has Not Changed. To Be a Bear Market Winner, Stay in the Market.
Sitting on the sidelines may feel more comfortable, but portfolios cannot grow if they are not invested.
You have heard the saying, "Don't let the tax tail wave the dog", meaning don't let taxes be the only determining factor when making investment decisions. There is another saying “Don’t let short-term market results influence your investment decisions when the financial markets are in distress”.
A bear market does not need to derail your wealth accumulation goals. Staying invested while you continue to receive depressing monthly or quarterly statements sounds simple, but it certainly is not easy. Don't let yourself be a bear market victim. Our hypothetical investor John Jones was a bear market victim when he invested $12,000 in the S&P 500 in April 1998 and moved to cash in at year end 2002. He ended up with $9,497. Liquidating his investment and moving to cash forced him to realize his $2,503 loss. The true cost of capitulation is $2,503 + $2,956 (the gains that he missed).
A second hypothetical investor, Judy White, invested $12,000 in April 1998 and employed a buy/hold strategy. Ten years later, Judy White ended up with $14,956. Depending on the time frame used, an investor who employed a buy/hold strategy would be a bear market survivor experiencing small losses.
A bear market winner is an investor who ends up thriving and prospering as a result of the volatility in the financial market. A bear market winner adopts a contrarian approach to investing, ignoring the negativity in the media and maintaining a systematic investing plan. Our third hypothetical investor, Bob Smith, did not invest an initial lump sum of money. Starting in April 1998, he consistently invested $100 per month in the S&P 500, regardless of market performance. In April 2008, he ended up with $13,923. Remember, it is not trying to time the market, rather the time you are in the market that is the best path to follow.
Depending on the investment time frame and risk tolerance, the investor who embraces the buy and hold approach may be the bear market winner. Other times, the investor who utilizes the dollar cost averaging strategy may be the bear market winner. While establishing a consistent systematic plan does not ensure against market losses, it does make the roller coaster feeling more palatable. Bottom, don't be a bear market victim. Better yet, don't just survive the bear market, talk to a financial advisor and learn how to thrive and prosper.
Marguerita (Rita) M. Cheng, CRPC, CFP®, is a financial advisor with Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, helping shape financial solutions for clients that will last a lifetime. She offers financial advisory services, including investments, insurance and annuity products. She can be reached at 301-320-1457 or marguerita.m.cheng@ampf.com.
INVESTMENTS
Miller Convertible Fund Tops Morningstar Rankings; Wins Coveted Lipper Award
WELLESLEY, Mass - According to Morningstar, the Miller Convertible Fund (Class A shares, ticker: MCFAX) is the best performing convertible fund for the 12 months ended April 30, 2009 in the category of convertible funds. 82 convertible funds are tracked by Morningstar and the rankings are based on total return. The Miller Convertible Fund outperformed second place Calamos Convertible I Shares by 386 basis points for the 12 month period.
For 2008, its first complete year, the Miller Convertible Fund, Class I Shares, ranked Number One in the Lipper Equity Fund Performance Analysis Service for the One Year Period Ending December 31, 2008. There were 71 funds in the convertible securities category and the rankings were based on returns.
Complete returns for various periods for all of the convertible funds listed in Morningstar can be viewed directly on the Morningstar website at: www.morningstar.com.
For more information on the Miller Convertible Fund, please contact Darlene Murphy CPA, CFP® at Wellesley Investment Advisors, Inc. (781) 416-4000 Ext. 123, email: dmurphy@wia.cc
Miller Convertible Fund A shares, return for 12 mos ended April 30, 2009: -12.24%
Miller Convertible Fund A shares, return for 12 mos ended March 31, 2009: -16.25%
Miller Convertible Fund A shares, return from inception* through April 30, 2009: -8.93%
Miller Convertible Fund A shares, return from inception* through March 31, 2009: -13.13%
Miller Convertible Fund I shares returns as of 12/31/2008 2008 1 Year Return: -19.22%
Miller Convertible Fund I shares returns inception* through 12-31-08 return: -19.03%
Miller Convertible Fund I shares returns for 12 mos. ended 3-31-09: -15.64%
Miller Convertible Fund I shares returns inception* through 3-31-09: -12.49%
*inception Date: December 27, 2007
The performance data quoted here represents past performance. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted above. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. The Fund's total annual operating expenses for the Miller Convertible Fund are capped at 1.76% for Class A and 1.25% for Class I. Please review the fund’s prospectus for more information regarding the fund’s fees and expenses. For performance information current to the most recent month-end, please call toll-free 877-441-4434.
©2009 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained herein is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; may not be copied or distributed; and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
Lipper, a Reuters company, is a global leader in supplying mutual fund information, analytical tools, and commentary. Lipper's Performance Achievement Certificates are awarded to funds with returns that topped their Lipper category over one or more time periods: one, five, 10 or 15-year (depending on universe).
Convertible securities are hybrid securities that have characteristics of both bonds and common stocks and are subject to risks associated with both debt securities and equity securities. The fund is also subject to non-diversification risk, which means the fund is more vulnerable to events affecting a single issuer.
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Miller Convertible Fund. This and other important information about the Fund is contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained by calling 781-416-4000. The prospectus should be read carefully before investing. The Miller Convertible Fund is distributed by Northern Lights Distributors, LLC member FINRA/SIPC.
REAL ESTATE
Is the “Making Home Affordable Program” a Strikeout or a Home Run?
In the loan modification world, the infrastructure and incentive system simply does not yet exist to the detriment of both the homeowners and the banks.
Doing well by doing good. Under the new administration guidelines and with apologies to “It’s a Wonderful Life”, idealistic Jimmy Stewart would make more money for his stockholders than cruel old Colonel Potter
The Obama Administration announced its new “Making Home Affordable” loan modification program in early April of this year. The program was designed to empower banks to modify several million home loans so that homeowners who had suffered financial reverses could reduce the payments on their home loans to 31% of their income.
The government bears 1/2 of the cost of the loan modification. Nonetheless, this program, like most of the administration’s efforts in this area, was designed to be a windfall for the lenders.
Here’s Why the Lenders Should Take the Deal
According to a May 2008 Business Week article; If a typical home loan is foreclosed, studies show that the bank normally loses 20% of the loan amount because of the home’s actual loss in value, In addition, the banks typically lose an additional 26% of the loan amount because the costs of foreclosure, keeping the property in repair, paying taxes and insurance until the sale, brokerage fees, and other closing costs bring their total foreclosure losses to a total of 46% of the loan value. If the typical loan is $250,000, the approximate costs will be $114,500 and more if the market is off more than 20%.
Cost of Typical Foreclosure
| Lost Value |
20% of $250,000 =s |
$ 50,000 |
| Foreclosure Costs |
26% of $250,000 =s |
$ 64,500 |
| Total |
|
$ 114,500 |
Part of the reason restructuring the loan is not very expensive is that the interest rate reduction is not permanent. After 5 years the rate starts to go back toward original rates. The present value of the cost of modifying a 6% $250,000 mortgage to a 3% loan for 5 years; then, adding 1% per year to the rate until the loan is back to its original 6% interest rate is only about $27,000 dollars. Since the government is bearing 1/2 of the cost; the lender is only out $13,500 which the bank can better afford, particularly if it successfully avoids $64,500 in foreclosure costs. In this example, the homeowner saves about $35,000 over 8 years, $425 per month for the 1st 5 years, which should be enough to actually avoid foreclosure for a large number of troubled homeowners and their lenders. In addition, the modification keeps homes in the neighborhood occupied, preserving neighborhoods threatened by an excess of vacant housing stock.
All things considered, a typical U.S. lender can save as much as $100,000 by modifying a home loan rather than foreclosing on the loan. The taxpayers save because it takes less money to bail out the banks. The U.S. housing market also avoids the domino impact of all these houses hitting the market at the same time. If the average loan modification saves the banking system $50,000; the banking system’s savings will easily exceed $250 billion.
Despite all the monetary advantages to the banks, they have been slow to get with the program. Many banks are under pressure from stockholders and the feds to control costs so they have not yet staffed or trained enough people to deal with the new programs. At the same time, the distressed homeowners are shell shocked in this financial and job climate. Despite huge amounts of publicity, the programs are not easily understood by either the public or the lenders. When the homeowner applied for his original loan the mortgage broker and the lender had lots of training in how to fill out these forms -- and lots of monetary incentives to make deals work. In the loan modification world of today, the infrastructure and incentive system simply does not yet exist. Many delinquent home buyers are not up to the task of dealing with their lenders. Consequently, less than 100,000 home loans have been modified so far.
Why?
- Most banks have not hired or trained sufficient personnel to deal with modification requests
- Most banks have not established their policies for modifying home loans.
- Home owners are confused.
- Most banks will continue to foreclose on your home until they establish their policies and hire personnel.
Recent Events
Loan modifications were going so slowly in South Carolina and so many homes were in danger of foreclosure that their Supreme Court stopped all foreclosures until the banks and the court determined whether a loan was eligible for loan modification.
There were so many abandoned deteriorating foreclosed homes with overgrown yards and stinking swimming pools in one California town that the city passed a law that allowed them to put bankers in jail who failed to maintain vacant foreclosed property. This law cleaned up several neighborhoods.
In part, it’s a corporate culture issue. The banker’s mind set is to behave more like evil Colonel Potter in “It’s a Wonderful Life” and not at all like Jimmy Stewart. They have in most cases hired collectors who make robo calls to delinquent homeowners as many as 12 times a day; but the banks can’t seem to employ people trained to answer questions about loan modifications. One bank collector told a homeowner he could not talk to the modification department but they might call him if they needed information; then, the collector reminded the homeowner that the bank planned to foreclose unless a payment was made by the 15th of the month. This Florida homeowner had a sterling credit rating until he was laid off by his employer. On top of that, the value of his home dropped by 50% since 2007 and his home insurance payments have recently doubled. It is a perfect storm for Florida homeowners.
In the banker’s defense their world is upside down. Their recent investment decisions were so bad they are having trouble paying their own bills. Many banks have survived, not without with serious culture shock, only because they received TARP funds and other forms of support from the federal government. However, the bankers seem to have a tin ear to the problems of others and revert back to their Colonel Potter’s mind set when it comes to helping homeowners.
For our banking system, the lender’s own economic safety, and to protect qualifying homeowners, every state should take action and ban foreclosures until there is a process in place to determine if a home owner is eligible for loan modification.
What Should You Do?
Write and call your Congressman, Senator, and your state representive (http://www.visi.com/juan/congress/cgi-bin/newseek.cgi?site=ctc&state=or) and ask them to stop foreclosures until the banks figure out how to handle the loan modification process. It is simply not fair to the lender or the economically challenged homeowners to allow them to blow up each other and our economy up because of homeowner fear and bank executives who can’t get around to intelligently addressing the housing problem.
And despite the warnings many politicians and bankers are making, overwhelmed borrowers should consider taking advantage of the work-out consultants who are springing up around the country and who know how the new programs work. Unless the homeowner has experienced assistance; he is like the fellow who took a water pistol to the “Gunfight at the OK Corral” and wondered how he happened to be killed or wounded.
William G. Campbell, President of RPC Group, Little Rock, AR, has spent his career structuring real estate projects for financial planning and brokerage firms, and serving as the chief financial officer at corporations. He has worked on hundreds of projects that required debt negotiation and debt modification for highly complex real estate transactions. In these roles he helped corporations stabilize their financial relationship with their major shareholders and lenders, and directed the reorganization of the accounting and legal divisions of businesses. He has helped high net worth individuals organize their real estate holdings to preserve income, save taxes, and reduce their debt. In work with a major international bank, Campbell analyzed the financial statements of the banks holdings, particularly its REIT portfolio, to enable the firm to build a defensive portfolio of high yielding securities with strong balance sheets for clients seeking income and safety. Given the current mortgage turmoil, Campbell has turned his energy to assisting homeowners with home mortgage refinancing or modification under the "Making Home Affordable" program. He can be reached at 501-225-1211 or wgc@therpcgroup.com.
IT’S NOT YOUR FATHER’S REAL ESTATE RECESSION.
Investors and developers find that some market sub-sectors are working today, but some are not. Which you pick may determine how you do.
The world is confusing for many real estate investors today. Markets are not all reacting the way they historically have, or at least the way one might think. First of all, the outlook is pretty bleak at the macro level. The Marcus & Millichap real estate firm projects U.S. vacancy rates for 2009 at high levels and rising. They believe office vacancy will reach 17.6 percent; the retail sector will hit 10.9 percent; 12.6 percent for industrial; and (high for that sector) 7.7 percent for apartments. But these general trends ignore some green sprouts of new growth pushing up through the cracks in the old cement.
Apartments: The historical record suggests that in a recession the owners of multi-family apartments should do reasonably well. People who can’t afford to keep paying their home mortgages move into rentals, newly formed households tend to rent rather than buy. Single-family home prices take a hit but everyone has to live somewhere so the conventional wisdom suggests rentals will do well.
Will that be good for REITs and other major apartment rental firms? Not this time.
Apartment rental demand was up 2% last year which is an additional 700,000 households renting. The rental pool increased at a 2.1% rate in the first quarter this year, but national multi-family occupancies in professionally managed properties are actually down. Torto-Wheaton reports: “Last year was tough on professionally-managed apartment properties: the sector experienced its first annual decline in occupied stock on record, with the vacancy rate surpassing the previous peak set in 2003.” Why did that happen? Despite what you might think, only about 40% of the renters in this country are in typical multi-family apartment projects. Sixty per cent of renters are in one, two and three family homes. The people facing foreclosure who have become unemployed or are having mortgage troubles in this recession are disproportionately working baby-boomers with families. If they have several children they may not fit into the typical 1 or 2 bedroom multi-family rental. Often, if they have the choice, they don’t want to move their children to new school districts, their credit ratings may not be good enough now for professional apartment managers, and frankly given the growing pool of unsold and foreclosed homes, good multi-family apartments are often, by comparison, expensive. Though these families may have lost their own homes, they choose to try to rent single family or duplex homes in or near their old neighborhoods.
There are rental sectors less impacted by these trends. Student housing on or near campus offers safety, amenities and conveniences that single and two or three-family home cannot. Senior rental housing can offer amenities, a sense of community, and freedom from the hard work of home owning and maintenance tasks that living in a single-family rental can involve – and there are usually no stairs for seniors to deal with.
Hotels: Hotel demand in this country is mostly dependent on business travel. A 1% shift in Gross Domestic Product, up or down, typically will (with a lag measured in months rather than years) generate about a 0.7% change in hotel demand. We’ve had increasing concerns about business demand for at least two years. So hotel construction should have slowed to a near halt, right?
Wrong this time.
Again, according to Torto Wheaton: “Last year, even as the economy and market fundamentals deteriorated, the number of new hotel projects grew. Total employment declined by 0.7% in 2008, compared to an increase of 1% in 2007 and overall hotel occupancy declined by 260 basis points (bps) in 2008 compared to a decline of 30 bps in 2007. Despite this, new construction kept pace in 2008, with 47,767 new rooms added—more than double the 22,289 rooms added in 2007.”
Demand is slackening fairly quickly and supply is growing faster. Why? Partly that’s just the development lead-time. But also true that the existing hotel stock, much of it full service chain properties built from the 60s through the mid 80s, simply does not meet the requirements of today’s better off business traveler. Older Holiday Inns, Ramadas, Days Inns, with 100 rooms or fewer, frequently on roads that have been bypassed by newer highways, are often functionally obsolete. Too cheaply built to benefit much from a third or fourth or fifth refurbishing. Restaurants are no longer a profit center in times when the only meal a business traveler eats on property is breakfast and that down the street Courtyard by Marriott or Holiday Inn Express competitor gives breakfast away for free. Once upon a time you could make money on your telephone operations; cell phones have killed that. You can try to make money from computer connections, but you have to pay for Wi-Fi equipment and your competitor might be giving that away as well. Typically business travelers with the option will go for larger rooms to accommodate their computers and other impedimenta of travel, but the Ramada can afford to knock down all the walls necessary to do that.
The chains that business travelers rely on for the kind of hotel they increasingly want are Residence Inns and Courtyards by Marriott, Hilton’s Doubletree, Homewood Suite and Embassy Suite hotels can get built even today. Even a 40-year-old Marriott may not be able to afford the required upgrades the next time its franchise agreement rolls over, if indeed it qualifies. Marriott may prefer to give the area to someone who can build an entirely new up to date property.
Retail: Look at the desolate retail real estate sector, shudder at what’s happened to General Growth Properties. High-end retail and major department stores are taking a terrible hit, but don’t forget that there are also a lot of neighborhood shopping centers. Even in this economy people have to buy food and go to the pharmacy.
Industrial: Companies are cutting inventories so warehouse demand is getting dicey but specific markets, particularly in some second tier markets, are finding revised distribution strategies give them more demand, not less.
Conclusion: The same or similar issues involve all real estate sectors, office, public storage, and nursing homes….
You have to look at each not just in terms of location, location, location but also does it fit the needs of a 21st century nation in recession? It’s harder to pick winners. The major operators and owners (like big national REITs) are simply too big to sharp shoot smaller market sub-sectors so they pretty much are condemned to mimicking the results of the still-troubled national markets. To play to win you may have to find smaller privately financed vehicles until the overall economic recovery and subsequent real estate recovery kick in.
Meanwhile it’s not your father’s recession by a long shot. For one thing, in case you haven’t noticed, they aren’t making Oldsmobiles any more.
Michael Dowd is Managing Director of Equity Research Collaborative, consultants to real estate investors and financial institutions. He can be reached at 781-893-4119 and at DowdBoston@aol.com
PRACTICAL MANAGEMENT
Maximize Mileage from your E-Mail Subject Line
Your email in-box is crowded. The same goes for recipients of your emails. So make life easier for everyone by writing an informative subject line.
For example, start your subject line with:
- "Please reply by MARCH 31" or the more abrupt "Due by 3/31," if you've got a deadline
- "OK?" if you're seeking approval
- "Can you attend? Meeting on March 30"
- "FYI," if no action is required of the recipient
Another trick for getting your addressees' attention: use their names in your subject line. For example, "Sarah, please edit by March 31." This tells Sarah she isn't merely one of many people cc'd on the message.
Also useful is EOM--short for "end of message"--when I communicate with colleagues who understand that abbreviation. When you convey your complete message in the subject line, EOM signals the recipient that they needn't open your email.
Small changes can reap big rewards in how your e-mail is understood and acted upon.
Susan B. Weiner, Investment Writing, is a seasoned investment communications professional, journalist and CFA charterholder who can help you with writing, editing and other communications that help you win new clients while keeping current clients informed. Visit her website at www.investmentwriting.com, or call 617-969-4509. |